·聚焦国际思想市场·解析财经新闻热点·对话国际经济学大师

文/杨泽宇

近期，新冠疫情在全球蔓延引发金融市场动荡，世界经济接下来将如何发展，应该如何应对冲击？网易研究局采访了亚洲开发银行（ADB）首席经济学家泽田康幸（Yasuyuki Sawada）。

泽田康幸（Yasuyuki Sawada）

网易研究局：有经济学者认为，我们正在经历“大萧条”，你同意吗？如何理解现在的经济形势？

泽田康幸：正如我们在4月3日《2020年亚洲发展展望》（以下简称“《报告》”）中所述，这场疫情的全球成本可能在2万亿美元到4.1万亿美元之间，相当于全球GDP损失2.3%-4.8%。这些估算反映了这场疫情的全球性质，比如，全球广泛使用的控制政策和旅行禁令以及疫情对中国经济活动的影响。

新冠疫情的蔓延将导致今年亚洲发展中经济体经济增长大幅下滑。我们发布的《报告》预测，2020年亚太地区发展中经济体经济增速为2.2%，较2019年9月亚行预测的5.5%进行了下修。如果疫情结束，经济活动恢复正常，预计2021年经济增长将反弹至6.2%。

没有哪个亚洲经济体能毫发无损地躲过如此大规模的疫情的冲击。由于全球需求疲弱，今年所有的亚洲发展中经济体的增长都将受到影响。而在另外一些经济体，由于国内疫情爆发和管控政策，增长也将受到影响。经济上更开放的区域，如东亚和东南亚，或依赖旅游业的太平洋地区，将受到沉重打击。

关于有些专家提到的目前的情形“比上世纪30年代的大萧条更糟糕”的观点，我们应该注意到，从根本上说，这次危机是一场健康危机。如果对疫情处置及时，那么经济复苏也会是迅速的。

然而，经济的V型复苏并非板上钉钉之事。如果不能迅速控制病毒蔓延，可能会导致更大、更长期的影响，因此下行风险也是不容忽视的。新冠病毒造成的破坏时间越长、程度越深，发生金融危机的可能性就越大。

网易研究局：欧佩克+达成原油减产协议，对世界经济会产生哪些影响？

泽田康幸：一方面，需求下降和油价下跌将对通胀产生直接的负面影响。虽然2020年1月至3月的平均油价为每桶50美元，但我们预测2020年的平均油价为每桶35美元。另一方面，新冠疫情对通胀的整体影响是不确定的，因为供应中断可能会给一些产品的价格带来上行压力。我们需要密切监测，政策制定者需要确保生产和贸易的减少不会造成粮食等关键物资的短缺。

网易研究局：如何看待全球化的挑战？

泽田康幸：这场全球疫情可能会给世界留下永久的伤疤，导致全球经济发生根本性的、长期的变化。例如，全球化可能会出现倒退，这对亚太这个从一体化中获益良多的地区来说是有害的。我们有必要重申开放贸易和投资体制的重要价值，以维护亚太地区和全球经济的繁荣。

网易研究局：如何看待粮食安全？

泽田康幸：首先，我们在《报告》中提到，亚洲发展中经济体的整体通胀率在2019年升至2.9%，并将在2020年进一步升至3.2%，这主要是受食品价格的推动。由于非洲猪瘟，中国的猪肉价格仍在高位，而南亚的蔬菜（洋葱）价格也有所上涨。随着食品价格压力的缓解，预计2021年通胀率将下降到2.3%。

新冠疫情对粮食安全的影响才刚刚开始显现，未来几周和几个月可能还会有更多紧张的状况出现。然而目前大多数政府的工作重点都放在了处理卫生、财政和经济影响上，其实制定规划以避免粮食价格进一步上涨、关注人口营养状况和纾解粮食安全问题仍然是必要的。

与应对食品短缺、涨价和社会不稳定的风险相比，减少食品供应链中的冲击将是有效遏制食品价格上涨的一个成本较低的解决方案。至关重要的是，各国政府应优先考虑在食品生产价值链上的政策和投资，以减少新冠疫情对供应链的影响，从而控制食品价格上涨。

网易研究局：如何看待美国的无限量化宽松政策？对目前的经济而言，QE是最好的选择吗？

泽田康幸：再次强调，从根本上讲，这是一场健康危机。如果新冠疫情应对及时，经济复苏将是迅速的。然而，经济的V型复苏并非板上钉钉之事。如果借款人违约并给金融部门带来压力，这场健康危机就可能会演变成一场金融危机，因为市场高度波动和资本外流会带来危险。如果能够迅速控制疫情，则意味着全世界都应该可以避免这种危险。

为了避免新冠疫情引发的健康危机演变成货币和金融危机，向市场注入充足的流动性是必要的，财政政策、货币政策和政策协调对于最小化经济危机和全球衰退的可能性至关重要。

亚行（ADB）于2020年4月13日宣布了一项200亿美元的一揽子计划，以满足其发展中成员国应对新冠疫情的需要。

亚行的支持将解决新冠疫情对经济造成的各种中长期影响，包括对人民健康的不利影响、消费和投资的急剧下降、旅游和出口的下降以及贸易和生产的中断。

亚行还准备实施针对贫困人口和受新冠疫情影响的失业和有医疗需求的弱势群体的救助措施，包括：

购买医疗用品用作疾病控制及检测；

为紧急应对措施提供支持，准备好控制新冠疫情造成的卫生健康影响；

加强疾病检测和应对能力；

加强政府应对突发卫生事件的能力；

为民营企业、小额信贷机构和中小型企业提供营运资本；

在全球经济遭受疫情的重大冲击之际，确保有充足的贸易和供应链融资；

处理疫情对经济和财政影响。

ENGLISH VERSION：

Editor: Shark Zeyu Yang

Shark Yang: As the novel coronavirus spreads worldwide, the world markets and economy are suffering a sharp fall. There's a point that "a harder times" is drawing near, even worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s, do you agree? How do you understand the "hard times" the world is suffering now?

Yasuyuki Sawada: The global cost of the pandemic could range from $2.0 trillion to $4.1 trillion, equivalent to a loss of between 2.3% to 4.8% of global gross domestic product, as stated in our flagship Asian Development Outlook (ADO) 2020 released on 3 April. These estimates reflect the global nature of the pandemic, the extensive use of containment policies and travel bans worldwide, and data on how the outbreak affected activity in the People’s Republic of China (PRC).

The COVID-19 pandemic will see regional economic growth in developing Asia decline sharply in 2020. Our flagship ADO 2020 forecasts regional growth of 2.2% in 2020, a downward revision compared with the 5.5% ADB had forecast in September 2019. Growth is expected to rebound to 6.2% in 2021, assuming that the outbreak ends and activity normalizes. No economy in Asia will escape unscathed from a pandemic of this magnitude. All of developing Asia’s subregions will see growth suffer this year because of weak global demand, and in some economies because of domestic outbreaks and containment policies. Subregions that are more economically open like East and Southeast Asia, or tourism-dependent like the Pacific, will be hard hit.

On the point “even worse than the Great Depression of the 1930s,” we should note that this is fundamentally a health crisis. If that is dealt with swiftly, the economic recovery will be swift. However, a V-shaped recovery is not a given. A failure to quickly contain the virus could lead to much larger and longer-term impacts. The downside risks are significant. The longer and deeper the disruption from COVID-19, the greater the likelihood of financial crises.

Shark Yang: Saudi Arabia, Russia, and the U.S. agreed to lead a multinational coalition in major oil-production cuts after a drop in demand due to the coronavirus crisis and a Saudi-Russian feud devastated oil prices. What do you think of the agreement and the influence it brings to the world?

Yasuyuki Sawada: On the one hand, the drop in demand and also the drop in oil prices will have an immediate negative impact on inflation. While average oil prices in Jan-March 2020 were $50/barrel, our forecast is $35/barrel average for 2020.  On the other hand, the overall impact of COVID-19 on inflation is uncertain because supply disruptions may put upward pressure on some prices.  We will need to be closely monitored and policymakers need to ensure that reductions in both production and trade do not create shortages of key items such as food.

Shark Yang: What do you think of the world economy will be during or after the epidemic situation? Will the virus bring the world much more poverty? What measures should we take to help with the world economy?

Yasuyuki Sawada: This global pandemic could leave permanent scars, resulting in fundamental, long-run changes to the global economy. There could be a retreat from globalization, for example, which would be detrimental for this region which has benefited so much from integration. It is important for us to reaffirm the high value of open trade and investment regime to maintain prosperity of Asia and the Pacific as well as the global economy.

Shark Yang: Recently, under the influence of the plague of locusts and epidemic, many countries have banned rice exports. There is a view that the world has fallen into a food crisis. Do you think so? What are your opinions?

Yasuyuki Sawada: First, in the ADO 2020, the headline inflation increased to 2.9% in 2019 and will pick up further to 3.2% in 2020, driven up mainly by food prices. Pork prices in the PRC remain elevated due to African swine fever, and vegetable (onion) prices have increased in South Asia. Inflation is expected to ease to 2.3% in 2021 as pressures from food prices subside.

In relation to the impacts of COVID-19 on food security these are just beginning to emerge and many additional tensions are likely to arise in the coming weeks and months. While the focus of most governments is presently on health, financial and economic impacts, planning is required today to avoid higher food prices, impact on populations’ nutrition status and reduced food security. Reducing shocks in the food supply chain will help contain food price rises and will be a lower cost solution than managing food shortages, higher prices and the risk of social instability. It is critical that governments prioritize policies and investments in the food production value chain to reduce the level of COVID-19 impacts on the supply chain to control food price rises. (Source: Amid COVID-19, the time to act is now to protect food security, ADB blog)

Shark Yang: The Federal Reserve is committed to use its full range of tools to support the U.S. economy and President Trump signed the bill of US $ 2 trillion economic stimulus plan. What do you think of these measures? Are they necessary to save economy?

Yasuyuki Sawada: Again, this is fundamentally a health crisis. If that is dealt with swiftly, the economic recovery will be swift. However, a V-shaped recovery is not a given. This health crisis could turn into a financial crisis if borrowers default and put stress on the financial sector. High market volatility and capital outflows pose a danger.  Quick containment of the pandemic should mean the world avoids this.  Ample injection of liquidity is necessary and it is important to prevent the COVID-19 health crisis evolving into a currency and financial crisis. Fiscal policy, monetary policy, and policy coordination are critical to minimize the probability of economics crisis and global recession.

ADB on 13 April 2020, announced a $20 billion package to address the needs of its developing member countries (DMCs) as they respond to the COVID-19 pandemic.

ADB support will address the mid- to long-term economic impact of COVID-19 transmitted through various channels, including adverse effects on people's health, sharp declines in consumption and investment, lower tourism and exports, and disruptions in trade and production.

ADB is also ready to support measures that are targeted to poor people and vulnerable groups affected by COVID-19 through job loss and healthcare needs. Examples include:

Purchasing medical supplies for disease containment and testing;

Supporting urgent response measures to prepare for, or control the health-related impacts of the COVID-19 pandemic;

Enhancing disease detection and response capacities;

Strengthening government’s capacities in response to health emergencies;

Providing select private firms, microfinance institutions, and small and medium enterprises with access to working capital;

Ensuring sufficient trade and supply chain financing is available as the global economy experiences a major economic shock from the pandemic;

Addressing the pandemic’s economic and financial impact; and

Supporting various government measures targeted to poor people and vulnerable groups affected by COVID-19 through job loss and healthcare needs.

文章转自网易研究局